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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-09-09T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-09T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21591/-1
CME Note: A faint CME in SOHO white light and running difference imagery which is seen as even fainter in STEREO A imagery with no true leading edge to analyze. It is directed mostly to the north in SOHO imagery and to the north and east in STEREO A. While the coronagraph imagery seems to suggest that the CME source is located on the Earth-facing disk, a preliminary triangulation using SWPC_Cat results in a broad area on the Earth-facing disk where no source seems to actually erupt. The analysis is therefore pretty speculative. The CME overlaps a few other faint CMEs which increases the difficulty of the analysis. The interplanetary shock is characterized by a jump in solar wind speed, density, temperature and B_total. There is another subsequent increase at 2022-09-14T08:44Z, leading to an increase in B_total above 10 nT. Some magnetic field rotation is present.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-09-14T06:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-09-15T00:01Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2022-09-10T02:51Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 232
Longitude (deg): 008W
Latitude (deg): 20N
Half-angular width (deg): 50

Notes: Diffuse possible halo with unknown source. H-alpha imagery gap between roughly 07-09Z on 09 September may mean filament was missed. Some concurrent far-side activity may mean some misattribution of ejecta. Visible faintly on both St A COR2 and Lasco. Seems to interact with CIR, possibly from CH22 and lags main CME front on ecliptic. Earth lies at bottom edge of main front. G1 may result if concurrent with CH22's CIR.

Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 72.42 hour(s)
Difference: -17.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2022-09-11T05:58Z

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